📊 Daily Market — 2026-04-26

VIX 18.71 → 🟠 Tier 2 · 觀察

Cash target 50% · buy size 3-5% · range VIX 18–24.6

避開財報前 7 天的標的

📝 Today's Take

Market read. VIX at 18.71 lands us squarely in Tier 2 — quality growth, small entries (3-5%), 50% cash floor. The term structure tells the real story: VIX3M at 21.30 sits well above spot, meaning the market is pricing more uncertainty ahead than today's mild green tape suggests. Nasdaq's +1.6% rip looks constructive but don't chase — this is a watch-and-size-small environment, not a deployment sprint.

Devil's advocate. If the VIX3M/VIX spread compresses fast (VIX3M collapses toward spot rather than spot rising), it would signal a genuine vol regime reset into Tier 1, forcing the cash target up to 60% and removing most buy-list names from consideration. A strong GDP print or Fed pivot signal this week could make today's cautious sizing look like an overshoot.

Position calls:

• TSM — hold (medium). RSI at 68.3 and sitting 33.5% above the 200DMA with zero distance from its 52-week high — technically stretched. Up 9.4% from cost, no earnings catalyst imminent; let winners run but no add at these levels in Tier 2 with RSI approaching overbought.
• IONQ — watch (low). Earnings in 10 days (May 6) — just outside the 7-day trim window, but barely. Still 8.2% below 200DMA, 48% off 52-week high, and 1.6% underwater; high-beta speculative name with no technical support from moving averages. Reassess trim/exit posture if still held when the 7-day window opens on April 29.
• PLTR — trim (high). Earnings in 8 days (May 4) — within the 7-day trim mandate by Monday. Down 1.9% from cost, 13% below 200DMA, 31% off 52-week high, RSI a tepid 48.6 with no momentum. Framework rule is explicit: trim or hedge before known earnings; execute now before the window tightens further.
• SOFI — trim (high). Flags: earnings_within_3d (Apr 29), high_risk_tag, active Muddy Waters short report, 30% underwater, 22.7% below 200DMA, 42.8% off 52-week high. Special-case rules prohibit 'add' and make 'trim' or 'exit' the only valid calls; reducing exposure into a binary earnings event with an active short-seller overhang is non-negotiable.

🎯 Tier Action

Buy list: GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META, TSM, AVGO, TXN

🚩 Watch List

• TSM (Tier 2 / Exness): near_52w_high, buy_list_member
• IONQ (Tier 2 / Taiwan_Brokerage): below_200dma, deep_drawdown
• PLTR (Tier 2 / Taiwan_Brokerage): near_50dma, below_200dma, deep_drawdown
• SOFI (Tier 2 / Taiwan_Brokerage): below_200dma, deep_drawdown, underwater, earnings_within_7d, earnings_within_3d, high_risk_tag, event_play

💼 Holdings

🌐 Market Snapshot

Generated 2026-04-26 · Asia/Taipei · not investment advice.